Market forecasts from analyst firms are useful for gauging market uncertainty and understanding what factors influence an analyst’s point of view. Here is a comparison of Juniper Research forecasts at two points in time – 2024 and 2026 – that show how an analyst’s attention changes over time.
In 2024, Juniper Research forecast a market of 290 million connections globally by 2030. This corresponds to the first two years of “6G” service. The study emphasized the need to resolve network interference challenges arising from the use of high-frequency spectrum. It also urged operators to invest in Reconfigurable Intelligent Surface (RIS) technologies. Terahertz communications, spectrum policy, and RIS were topical issues in the communications industry at that time.
By 2026, attention shifted away from 2024’s hype around THz communications. For its revised forecast, Juniper expects the number of connections to reach 4.6 million in late 2029. The US and South Korea are expected to be the lead countries, most likely due to government policy ambitions. By 2030, Juniper Research expects China to become the biggest 6G market, followed by the US and Canada. South Korea would slip to sixth place behind Japan and the UK in fourth and fifth places respectively. Saudi Arabia, France and Qatar complete the top nine.
Looking further out, Juniper Research predicts a market of 2.9 billion 6G connections by 2035. This is dependent on deeper integration between network capabilities and digital services that build on programmable networks, integrated compute, and real time data processing. A simplified analysis suggests that an annual growth rate of about 190% would propel a market of 4.6 million in 2029 to one of 2.9 billion connections in 2035. A 190% growth rate would put the 2030 market at around 13 million connections. Contrast this with Juniper Research’s 2024 forecast of 290 million connections. Note that these calculations do not model beginning- and end-of period figures.
The evolution in Juniper Research’s framing reflects the industry’s marketing shift. There is less emphasis on high throughput communications for the mass market and more of a focus on capabilities that support the digital economy.
The dramatic lowering of near-term forecasts seems also to reflect the commercial and timing realities associated with the ITU’s timetable for IMT-2030. The narrative around enabling services also happens to align with views of 6G as a platform and ecosystem enabling technology.
SOURCES: Juniper Research forecast of February 2024 and 6G Market: 2026-2035 published in May 2026